Obstacles Exist to Flip Texas Blue

A recent Dallas Morning News released a poll showing that Joe Biden had a 5-point lead over Donald Trump in Texas. Soon after #TurnTexasBlue began to trend on Twitter again and many people began cheering on the idea Biden could flip Texas blue. Austin Democrats are fundraising off the idea Biden will Flip Texas Blue.

Texas voting numbers have trended blue and increasingly since Donald Trump’s election. At the same time, President Trump’s national approval rating has declined since April 2020 – due in part to his COVID19 response and the large numbers of newly infected patients occurring both nationally and locally.

For starters, Joe Biden may not even win in Texas. If 2016 taught anything, it’s to not take polls for granted. That’s something even Joe himself admits.

Bias exists in all polls. Whether it be that the polls in 2016 couldn’t reach Trumps non-college educated base, or simply that people don’t always vote how they say they will or may deliberately mislead pollsters. Its possible these sources of error are still present in the 1,887 person DMN/UT-Tyler poll.

Secondly, Joe Biden’s potential plan for expanding into Texas is risky. The Biden campaign told Politico that they were actively trying to expand into traditionally red states like Texas and Georgia.

As Dallas Represenative Colin Allred said, a move in Texas is a “chance to go on the offensive”. The idea is that if Biden spends resources campaigning in Texas, then Trump will have to spend money on keeping Texas. This could then distract Trump from campaigning in swing states. However, as Republicans, and even some Democrats point out, if Biden tries to attack in Texas, he himself loses resources in those swing states.

“That was the problem with the Clinton campaign, their eyes got big,” says Democratic strategist Pete Giangreco. “I don’t want to hear about expansion plans or this other bullshit. Eyes like a laser beam. What they need to focus on is 270 [electoral votes].”

Lastly, even if Biden tried to take Texas, campaigning in the big cities might not even get him the win. In the last election, Trump won Texas by 807,179 votes.

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Flip Texas Blue Is Harder Mathmatically Than It Sounds

Suppose Texas votes the same as they did in 2016. Now suppose Dallas and Travis (Austin) county voters who voted for Trump previously, vote for Biden in 2020 instead. Biden would still need to make up another 417,025 votes.

If Biden were then to flip all of Bexar County (San Antonio) to no red votes – all blue. He would still need 176,692 votes. Joe could try and get these votes from Harris County (Houston), but he would have to convince 32.36% of the people who previously voted for Trump, to now vote for him. He could also try Tarrant County (Fort Worth), but he would need to convince 51.07% of Trump supporters to now vote for him.

Winning over enough urban votes to counter the rural and sub-urbans votes is a hard task. Its definitely possible, but perhaps not probable this year.

If Biden hopes to seriously snatch Texas, he may also consider going after the hearts and minds of suburban Texan voters.

Rural voters would be extremely more difficult to get than the urban Texan vote.

“Hell, yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47…” didn’t work for Beto O’Rourke. Its possible, that despite being more moderate, Biden’s views will not resonate well with these rural voters.

People Moving May Flip Texas Blue

Another factor beyond 2020 though is the census. It is clear people are working to leave California and many other states. Texas continues to attract large employers out of California, Michigan, and New York.